Bear Taylor 
RIPPLE SALVO… #777… WILLIAM STRAUSS an NEIL HOWE… wrote in 1997… “AN AMERICAN PROPHECY“ … “Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth…. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. The risk of catastrophe will be very high.”… A third and final short clip from “The Fourth Turning” …but first…
GOOD MORNING…Day SEVEN HUNDRED SEVENTY-SEVEN of a daily journal commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Vietnam war and the air war over North Vietnam called Operation Rolling Thunder…
HEAD LINES from the OGDEN STANDARD-EXAMINER (AP/UPI)–when it was a good newspaper–on Sunday, 21 APRIL 1968…
THE WAR: Page 1: “STRONG YANK POUNDING MAY HINT ALLIED DRIVE–CONG TAKE LOSSES IN SAIGON AREA”… “Air Force B52s struck five times at enemy strongholds in the A Shau Valley Saturday night and early today in a possible prelude to a new allied push in northwestern South Vietnam. Elsewhere 59 Viet Cong died Saturday in two sharp clashes just outside of Saigon, U.S. Headquarters reported. No Americans were reported killed and other allied casualties were termed light. Other ground action across the country was light and scattered.”… In the far southern South Vietnam, U.S. Air Force jets started new fires in the U Minh forest in a continuing effort to burn out Viet Cong base camps and storage areas already ravaged by dry season blazes.”…Page 3: “POISONOUS SNAKES BOOBY TRAP GIs”… “The Viet Cong used a poisonous snake called a bamboo viper to booby trap their caves against pursuing U.S. soldiers…”… Page 1: “REDS ULTIMATELY READY TO TALK CLIFFORD HOPES”… “Secretary of Defense Clark M. Clifford predicted today that the North Vietnamese ultimately will decide to agree on a site for preliminary ‘peace negotiations and the talks will go on. ‘I think they are attempting to extract as much propaganda value as they can,’ Clifford said in discussing the maneuvering over a possible location for the preliminary talks.”…
Page 1: “KING ASSASSIN SUSPECT GETS PLACE ON FBI’s ‘MOST WANTED’ LIST”… “What may be the nation’s most intensive manhunt gained fresh pressure Saturday when the FBI placed on its ‘most wanted’ list a fugitive convict accused of murder in the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. … James Earl Ray, a 40-year-old habitual criminal, is being hunted by police from border to border and beyond for the April 4 sniper slaying in Memphis, Tenn. of the Negro civil rights leader from Atlanta.”… Page 1: “POLAR EXPEDITION REACHES NORTH POLE, STARTS BACK”… “The first man to reach the North Pole by surface travel since 1909 started their return trip Saturday–after spending almost a day at the pole. The expedition of amateur explorers led by Ralph Plaisted, a St. Paul, Minnesota insurance man boarded a twin-engine Otter aircraft for the flight back to Ward Island, Canada 474 miles from the pole….Plaisted noted that the overland trip to the pole took 48 days and the return was accomplished in 3 hours, 20 minutes.”... Page 2: “McCARTHY ASSAILS DISCORD ON U.S. COURSE IN VIETNAM”… “Senator Eugene J. McCarthy Saturday where appears to be ‘deep disagreement’ within the Johnson Administration on the American course in Vietnam and pledged to intensify his campaign demand for a policy overhaul.”…Page 2: “HUMPHREY SAID READY TO ANNOUNCE”…”Vice President Hubert Humphrey is expected to announce his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination next Saturday. His campaign is planned to stress a ‘don’t sell America short’ theme.”… Page 5: “DR. KING PATH–SUPPORT GROWS FOR MARCH FOR POOR ON WASHINGTON”… “Organizers of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s Poor People’s Campaign in Washington say they’ve been flooded by offers of support since the April 4 assassination of King.”… Page 7: “HIPPIES ABANDON HAIGHT-ASBURY IN SAN FRANCISCO FOR SUNNY VALLEYS OF THE WEST”… “Where have the hippies gone? To many and comfortable valleys like the San Lorenzo near the central California coast.”…
21 APRIL 1968…OPERATION ROLLING THUNDER (22 Apr reporting 21 Apr ops) Page 1: “In the air war against North Vietnam, American fighter-bomber pilots returned in force to the skies over the southern panhandle Sunday, flying 151 missions. The deepest penetration was by Navy fliers from the carrier Bon Homme Richard. They hit four trucks along a Highway 22 miles north-northwest of coastal Vinh. The target was 168 miles north of the demilitarized zone and two miles south of the 19th parallel, the northern limit set by President Johnson. The resurgence of U,S. power was facilitated by a break in the monsoon weather, which on Saturday limited the number of air missions to 94. But the monsoon has begun to break and Sunday there were ‘light to broken’clouds,’ the U.S. Command said. The 151 missions was the second highest total of the year, approaching the 160 flown on Friday, before the clouds settled in. U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marine pilots reported hits on communication lines, artillery sites and a radar installation. They also reported igniting three fuel dump fires and setting off numerous secondary explosions.”
“Vietnam: Air Losses” (Chris Hobson) There were three fixed wing aircraft downed in Southeast Asia on 21 April 1968…
(1) CAPTAIN W.D. PARR was flying an O-2A Duck of the 20th TASS and 504th TASG our of Danang on a visual recce mission in the Khe Sanh area and was hit by ground fire in the tail boom. CAPTAIN PARR made an emergency landing at Khe Sanh and survived the landing with injuries. The aircraft had been damaged beyond repair…
(2) MAJOR C.R. WEBSTER and 1LT N.C. VASSER were flying an F-4D of the 486th TFS and 366th TFW out of Danang were striking a target about 15 miles southeast of Dong Hoi when hit by ground fire. MAJOR WEBSTER flew the Phantom east and the pair of aviators ejected when the aircraft would go no more. They were rescued by a Navy helicopter…
(3) MAJOR ROBERT PAUL RIGGINS and 1LT WILLIAM CHOMYK were flying an F-4D of the 389th TFS and 366th TFW scrambled from Danang to strike a troop target seven miles southwest of Hue. They were hit by intense automatic weapon fire and it is estimated that the enemy fire disabled MAJOR RIGGINS in view of the lack of any attempt to abandon the aircraft before it crashed west of Hue. Inexplicably, these two warriors remain on the battlefield where they fell fifty years ago this dy… Bodies Not Recovered… Left behind… but remembered here on the anniversary of their last flight…
SUMMARY OF ROLLING THUNDER LOSSES (KIA/MIA/POW) ON 21 APRIL for the years of going North…
1965… NONE
1966… COMMANDER JACK ELMER KELLER (CO-VA-85) and LCDR ELLIS EARNEST AUSTIN were flying a VA-85 A-6A Intruder from USS KITTY HAWK on a dusk strike on the Tan Doc barracks 10 miles north of Vinh and were presumed downed in the target area. There was no beeper of voice comms. Searches for aviators and wreckage failed to find anything. Neither aviator was seen or heard from again and both were presumed to be Killed-In-Action in 1974 and rest where they fell 52 years ago this day…
1967… None
1968… None
Humble Host flew #147 and #148… #147: Led a mini-Alpha of 12 aircraft to strike a bridge over Song Ca west of Vinh. Good hits by several in flight (Mk82s an 83s) to drop the span… Light 37mm… #148: ARRECCE Happy Valley with wingman for truck hunting. Found three sticking out from under trees and put 12 Mk 82s on the trees and trucks…left two burning… One of the most enjoyable days of flying ever had…
RIPPLE SALVO… #777… HUMBLE HOST concludes a brief introduction to THE FOURTH TURNING with this short clip…abebooks.com has a shelf full of this great book for about $8 with no shipping cost, if you care for a full cup of this wisdom. Another good road map for the future is “Generational Dynamics,” google it and give it a try. The author is a disciple of Strauss and Howe… Of course, Epicurus is on record for about 100 generations with advice on the subject of forecasting the future: “No means of predicting the future really exists, and if it did, we must regard what happens according to it as nothing to us.”… Humble Host is riding with Strauss and Howe… they are on a roll… I quote… Pages 6-7…
“WHAT THE RHYTHMS OF MODERN HISTORY WARN ABOUT AMERICA’S FUTURE”…
“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. “remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes–and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort–in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. In the Civil War, the two central capital cities would surely have incinerated each other had the means been at hand. In World War II, America invented a new technology of annihilation, which the nation swiftly put to use. This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the means to inflict un- imaginable horrors and perhaps, will confront adversaries who possess the same.
“Yet Americans will also enter the Fourth Turning with a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. Many despair that values that were new in the 1960s are today (1997) so entwined with social dysfunction and cultural decay that they can no longer lead anywhere positive. Through the current Unraveling era, that is probably true. But in the crucible of Crisis, that will change. As the old civic order gives way, Americans will have to craft a new one. This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime. If all goes well, there could be a renaissance of civic trust, and more: Today’s Third Turning problems–that Rubik’s Cube of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics– will snap into a Fourth Turning solution. America’s post-Crisis answers will be as organically interconnected as today’s pre-crisis questions seem hopelessly tangled. By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards, and also one that works.
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse–or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
“We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them. Right now, in 1997, we have eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to take choices out of our hands. Yes, winter is coming, but our path through that winter is up to us.
“History’s howling storms can bring out the worse and best in a society. The next Fourth Turning could literally destroy us as a nation as people leaving us cursed in the histories of those who endure and remember. Alternatively, it could ennoble our lives, elevate us as a community, and inspire acts of consummate heroism–deeds that will grow into mythlike legends recited by our heirs far into the future.
“‘There is a mysterious cycle in human events,’ President Franklin Roosevelt observed in the depths of the Great Depression. ‘To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation has a rendezvous with destiny.’ The cycle remains mysterious, but need not come as a total surprise. Though the scenario and outcome are uncertain, the schedule is set: The next Fourth Turning–America’s next rendezvous with destiny–will begin in roughly ten years (2007) and end in roughly thirty years (2027).
“How can we offer this prophecy with such confidence? Because it’s all happened before. Many times.” End Quote…
RTR quote for 21 April: WINSTON CHURCHILL: “The farther back you look, the farther ahead you are likely to see.”…
Lest we forget… Bear
